Why Home Sales Bounce Back After Presidential Elections

With the 2024 Presidential election just around the corner, many are curious about how it might shake up the housing market—especially here in North County San Diego. Let’s dive into the exclusive insights on what buyers, sellers, and homeowners can expect as election season heats up!

Election Years Bring a Temporary Slowdown

In any given year, home sales slow down slightly in the fall. It’s a typical, seasonal trend. However, according to data from BTIG, in election years there’s usually a slightly larger dip in home sales in the month leading up to Election Day (see graph below):

Why? Uncertainty. Many consumers hold off on making major decisions or purchases while they wait to see how the election will play out. It’s a pattern that’s shown up repeatedly, and it's particularly apparent for buyers and sellers in the housing market.

This year is no different. A recent survey from Redfin found that 23% of potential first-time homebuyers said they’re waiting until after the election to buy. That’s nearly a quarter of first-time buyers hitting the pause button, likely due to the same feelings of uncertainty.

Home Sales Bounce Back After the Election

The good news is these delayed sales aren’t lost forever—they’re just postponed. History shows sales tend to rebound after the election is over. In fact, home sales have actually increased 82% of the time in the year after the election (see chart below):

That’s because once the election dust settles, buyers and sellers have a sense of what’s ahead and generally feel more confident moving forward with their decisions. And that leads to a boost in home sales.

What To Expect in 2025

If history is any indicator, that means more homes will sell next year. And based on the latest forecasts, that’s exactly what you should expect. As the graph below shows, the housing market is on pace to sell a total of 4.6 million homes this year, and projections are for 5.2 million total sales next year (see graph below):

And that aligns with the typical pattern of post-election rebounds.

In North County San Diego, it may feel like the market is cooling off, but this is likely just a temporary dip, not a lasting trend. As we've seen in past election years, once the uncertainty lifts, buyers and sellers typically return to the market here with renewed confidence and energy.

Bottom Line

It’s important to remember that, while election years often bring a short-term slowdown in the housing market, this pause is typically temporary. Here in North County, those sales are not lost. Data shows that home sales often see a boost the year following a Presidential election, and forecasts indicate 2025 will be no different. If you’re waiting for a clearer picture before making a move, know that North County's market is expected to pick up speed in the months ahead. Shafran Realty Group will be here every step of the way to help you make the most of it!