Mortgage rates remain a hot topic in North County, San Diego — and for good reason. Following the release of the most recent jobs report, which came in weaker than expected, local homebuyers and sellers are watching closely to see how the market responds.

The bond market reacted almost instantly. As a result, in early August, mortgage rates dropped to their lowest point of the year so far (6.55%).

While that may not sound like a big deal, every buyer has been waiting for rates to fall. And even a seemingly small drop like this reignites the hope we’re finally going to see rates trending down. But what’s realistic to expect?

According to the latest forecasts, rates are expected to fall. Most experts project they’ll stay somewhere in the mid-to-low 5% range through 2026

Each time there’s changing economic news, there’s a chance mortgage rates will react. And with so many reports coming out this week, we’ll get a better feeling of where the economy and inflation are headed – and how rates will respond.

What Rate Would Get Buyers Moving Again?

The magic number most buyers seem to be watching for is 6%. And it’s not just a psychological benchmark; it has real impact. A recent report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says if rates reach 6%:

• 5.5 million more households could afford the median-priced home
• And roughly 550,000 people would buy a home within 12 to 18 months

That’s a lot of pent-up demand just waiting for the green light. Does it make sense to wait for lower rates?

Because here’s the tradeoff. If you’re waiting for 6%, you need to realize a lot of other people are too. And when rates do continue to inch down and more buyers jump into the market all at once, you could face more competition, fewer choices, and higher home prices. NAR explains it like this:

"Home buyers wishing for lower mortgage interest rates may eventually get their wish, but for now, they’ll have to decide whether it’s better to wait or jump into the market."

Consider the unique window that exists right now:

• Inventory is up = more choices
• Price growth has slowed down = more realistic pricing
• You may have more room to negotiate = you could get a better deal

These are all opportunities that will go away if rates fall and demand surges. That’s why NAR says:

"Buyers who are holding out for lower mortgage rates may be missing a key opening in the market."

Bottom Line

Rates aren’t expected to hit 6% this year—but when they eventually do, expect more competition as other buyers flood back into the market. Right now, you have a rare window of opportunity in North County San Diego to face less pressure, enjoy more negotiating power, and secure the right home before the crowd catches on.

At Shafran Realty Group, we’re closely tracking what’s happening in our local market so you can make the smartest move possible. This unique moment may not last long—it all depends on how the economy shifts next. Let’s talk about your options and see if now is the right time to act before everyone else jumps back in.