You’ve probably seen the headlines saying new home inventory is at its highest point since the housing crash. And if you lived through 2008, it’s understandable that seeing more construction on the horizon might feel unsettling. But here’s the truth: a lot of what you read online is built to grab attention, not give you the full picture. With a closer look at the data—and some expert perspective—you’ll see the story is very different.

Even here in North County San Diego, where a few new developments are visible across communities like Carlsbad, Oceanside, and Encinitas, the local market reflects a much more balanced trend than the clickbait headlines suggest.

Why This Isn’t Like 2008

While it’s true the number of new homes on the market hit its highest level since the crash, that’s not a reason to worry. That’s because new builds are just one piece of the puzzle. They don’t tell the full story of what’s happening today.

To get a clear picture of how much inventory we have and how it compares to the surplus we saw previously, you need to consider both new homes and existing homes (those that were previously lived in by a previous owner).

When you combine those two numbers, it’s clear overall supply looks very different today than it did around the crash (see graph below):

So, saying we’re near 2008 levels for new construction isn't the same as the inventory surplus we had the last time.

Builders Have Actually Underbuilt for Over a Decade

And here’s some other important perspective you’re not going to get from those headlines. After the 2008 crash, builders slammed on the brakes. For 15 years, they didn’t build enough homes to keep up with national demand. That long stretch of underbuilding created a major housing shortage, which we’re still dealing with today.

The graph below uses Census data to show the overbuilding leading up to the crash (in red), and the period of underbuilding that followed (in orange):

Basically, we had more than 15 straight years of underbuilding – and we’re only recently starting to slowly climb out of that hole. But there’s still a long way to go (even with the growth we’ve seen lately). Experts at Realtor.com say it would take roughly 7.5 years to build enough homes to close the gap.

Of course, like anything else in real estate, the level of supply and demand is going to vary by market. Some markets may have more homes for sale, some less. But nationally, this isn’t like the last time.

Bottom Line

Just because there are more new homes on the market right now doesn’t mean we’re heading for a crash. The numbers show today’s inventory looks very different from the past. If you’re curious about what builders are doing here in North County San Diego—or how these trends impact your buying or selling plans—our team at Shafran Realty Group is here to guide you. Let’s connect today and put a strategy in place that works for you.