The market has cooled, and North County San Diego is feeling it too. Many homeowners who haven’t sold at their desired price are now pulling their homes off the market. Nationally, Realtor.com reports a 38% increase in listings being withdrawn since the start of the year, and a 48% jump compared to last June. Locally, the same pattern is emerging—about 21 homes are taken off the market for every 100 new listings in June.

If you’ve made that choice, it’s natural to feel frustrated. But history shows slowdowns don’t last forever, and the market always finds its way back.

History Repeats Itself: Proof from the Past

This isn’t the first time the housing market has experienced a slowdown. Here are some other notable times when home sales dropped significantly:

• 1980s: When mortgage rates climbed past 18%, buyers stopped cold. Sales crawled for years. But as soon as rates came down, sales surged back, and the market found its footing again.
• 2008: The Great Financial Crisis was one of the toughest housing downturns in history. Sales and prices both dropped hard. Still, sales rebounded once the economy recovered.
• 2020: During COVID, sales disappeared overnight, and many people had to put their plans on hold. Yet the recovery was faster than anyone expected, with a surge of buyers re-entering the market as soon as restrictions eased.

The lesson is clear: no matter the cause, the market always rebounds.

Today’s Situation: Where We Stand Now

Over the past few years, home sales have been sluggish. And one big reason why is affordability. Mortgage rates rose at a record-breaking pace in 2022, and home prices were climbing at the same time. That combination put buying out of reach for many people. And when demand slows, home sales do too.

The Outlook: Why Things Will Improve

But here’s the encouraging part. Forecasts show sales are expected to pick up again moving into 2026.

Last year, just about 4 million homes sold (shown in gray in the graph below). And this year is looking very similar (shown in blue). But the average of the latest forecasts from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) show the experts believe there will be around 4.6 million home sales in 2026 (shown in green).

And a big reason behind that projection is the expectation that mortgage rates will come down a bit, making it easier for more buyers to jump back in.

That means what’s happening now is part of a cycle we’ve seen before. Every slowdown in the past has eventually given way to more activity, and this one will too.

Just like the 1980s, 2008, and 2020, today’s dip in home sales is temporary.

What That Means for You

If you’ve pressed pause on your moving plans, you made the decision that felt right for now—and your frustration is completely valid. But it’s also important to keep the bigger picture in mind: housing slowdowns don’t last forever.

That’s where the Shafran Realty Group team comes in. Our agents live and work right here in North County San Diego, and we’re constantly tracking the local market. When the first signs of a rebound appear, we’ll help you spot the shift early so you can relist with confidence.

Bottom Line

If today’s market feels stuck, remember it never stays that way for good. Slowdowns pass, buyers return, and activity picks up again. Let’s connect—because when the next wave of buyers hits North County, you won’t want to miss your chance.

As the market gains momentum, will you be ready to put your home back on the market—or do you need to make a move sooner?