Forget the Headlines This Is What’s Really Going on With Home Prices

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You’ve probably seen the dramatic headlines predicting a housing market crash — but they’re not painting the full picture. Especially not here in North County San Diego.

While it’s true that in some local areas, prices are leveling off or even dipping slightly as inventory grows, this kind of shift is typical in a balancing market. What we’re seeing isn’t a collapse — it’s a healthy correction after years of rapid appreciation.

In North County, desirable communities like Carlsbad, Encinitas, and San Marcos continue to draw buyers thanks to their coastal charm, strong schools, and quality of life. The long-term outlook? Experts project steady home price growth over the next five years — a far cry from a crash. So, don’t let the fear-based headlines fool you. The big picture in North County San Diego is one of resilience, stability, and long-term opportunity.

Over 100 leading housing market experts were surveyed in the latest Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae. Their collective forecast shows prices are projected to keep rising over the next 5 years, just at a slower, healthier pace than what we’ve seen more recently. And that kind of steady, sustainable growth should be one factor to help ease your fears about the years ahead (see graph below):

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And if you take a look at how the various experts responded within the survey, they fall into three main categories: those that were most optimistic about the forecast, most pessimistic, and the overall average outlook.

Here’s what the breakdown shows:

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  • The average projection is about 3.3% price growth per year, through 2029.
  • The optimists see growth closer to 5.0% per year.
  • The pessimists still forecast about 1.3% growth per year.

Do they all agree on the same number? Of course not. But here’s the key takeaway: not one expert group is calling for a major national decline or a crash. Instead, they expect home prices to rise at a steady, more sustainable pace.

That’s actually a healthier sign for the market — and for you as a buyer or seller. In North County San Diego, some neighborhoods may see prices hold steady or dip slightly in the short term as inventory builds. Others, especially in high-demand areas like coastal Carlsbad or Del Mar, may continue to outpace national trends due to low supply and strong buyer demand. Overall, the days of double-digit price spikes are behind us — and that’s a good thing. More moderate, sustainable growth is helping bring balance back to the market after the frenzied pace of recent years.

And remember, even the most conservative experts still project prices will rise over the course of the next 5 years. That’s also because foreclosures are low, lending standards are in check, and homeowners have near record equity to boost the stability of the market. Together, those factors help prevent a wave of forced sales, like the kind that could drag prices down. So, if you’re waiting for a significant crash before you buy, you might be waiting quite a long time.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been on the fence about your real estate plans, now’s the time to get clarity. Despite the headlines, the market isn’t crashing — it’s shifting toward steady, long-term growth, with some regional fluctuations along the way.

In North County San Diego, every zip code tells a slightly different story. That’s why national trends can only go so far — what really matters is what’s happening right here in your neighborhood.

At Shafran Realty Group, we specialize in understanding the local data that impacts your bottom line. Let’s have a quick conversation about what’s really happening in our market — so you can move forward with confidence.