If you’ve been keeping an eye on the market in North County San Diego, you’ve likely noticed a few shifts already this year. But what’s coming next? From home prices to mortgage rates, here’s what the latest expert forecasts say about the rest of 2025—and what these changes could mean for local buyers and sellers.
Will Home Prices Fall?
Many hopeful buyers are wondering if home prices in North County will finally come down. And with headlines reporting price dips in certain areas, it’s easy to assume a bigger correction might be around the corner. But here are the facts—and why this market may not follow the national trend.
While home price growth is slowing down, that doesn’t mean we’re headed for a crash. As NAHB explains:
“House price growth slowed . . . partly due to a decline in demand and an increase in supply. Persistent high mortgage rates and increased inventory combined to ease upward pressure on house prices. These factors signaled a cooling market, following rapid gains seen in previous years.”
But experts say, even with that slowdown, prices will still rise this year at the national level. The average of 8 leading forecasters shows prices are expected to go up 1.5-2% in 2025 (see graph below):
That means, if you’re waiting for a major drop, experts agree that’s just not in the cards.
Keep in mind, while some markets are already seeing prices come down slightly, the average dip is just -3.5%. That’s a far cry from the nearly 20% decline the market experienced during the 2008 crash.
Plus, those small changes are easily absorbed when you consider how much home prices have climbed over the past few years. Data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) shows prices are up 55% nationally compared to just 5 years ago.
The takeaway? Home prices aren’t crashing. They’re still expected to rise—just at a slower, more moderate pace. Some experts predict prices may level off toward the end of the year. But remember, real estate is hyper-local. While some areas may see small dips, others could continue trending upward. That’s why it’s smart to lean on a local expert who understands the latest price trends here in North County San Diego.
Will Mortgage Rates Come Down?
Another common thought among today’s buyers is: I’m just going to wait for rates to come down. But is that a smart strategy? According to Yahoo Finance:
"If you’re looking for a substantial interest rate drop in 2025, you’ll likely be left waiting. The latest news from the Federal Reserve and other key economic data point toward steady mortgage rates on par with what we see today."
In other words, don’t try to time the market or wait for a drop that may not be coming. Most experts say rates will remain in the 6s, and current projections have them settling in the mid-6% range by the end of this year (see chart below):
And here’s the thing—rates may not be where you want them to be, but they’re also not expected to drop dramatically anytime soon. If you need to make a move, it’s worth having a conversation about how to make it work now, rather than putting your plans on hold waiting for a shift that, according to the data, may not happen.
That’s where working with a knowledgeable expert really matters. Mortgage rates are influenced by a mix of economic factors—like inflation, the job market, and Fed policy—and staying informed is key. The experienced agents at Shafran Realty Group are keeping a close eye on all of it and can guide you through your options with clarity and confidence.
The Takeaway for Buyers and Sellers
Whether you're buying, selling, or thinking about doing both, this market requires strategy, not guesswork. Prices are still rising nationally (just more slowly), and rates are projected to stay pretty much where they are, so the bigger picture is one of moderation – not a meltdown.
Bottom Line
If you're considering a move, the smartest strategy is to focus on your personal goals—not the headlines. Every market is different, and what’s true nationally may not reflect what’s happening here in North County San Diego.
Let’s connect and talk about what’s really going on locally. The agents at Shafran Realty Group are here to help you build a plan that aligns with your needs and keeps you one step ahead in this ever-changing market.