Recession Concerns Are Making Headlines—But What Could It Mean for the North County San Diego Housing Market?
With growing talk of a potential recession, many are left wondering how it might impact real estate—especially here in North County San Diego. As economic uncertainty rises, understanding what a slowdown could mean for home values, buyer demand, and long-term investment in our local market is more important than ever.
Let’s take a look at some historical data to show what’s happened in housing for each recession going all the way back to the 1980s.
A Recession Doesn’t Mean Home Prices Will Fall
Many people think that if a recession hits, home prices will fall like they did in 2008. But that was an exception, not the rule. It was the only time we saw such a steep drop in prices. And it hasn’t happened since.
In fact, according to data from CoreLogic, in four of the last six recessions, home prices actually went up (see graph below):
It’s a common misconception that a recession automatically means a drop in home prices—but historical data tells a different story. In most cases, home prices tend to continue on their existing path, and right now, prices are still rising at a steady, more normalized pace across the country. Here in North County San Diego, the market remains resilient and continues to show healthy demand.
Mortgage Rates Typically Decline During Recessions
While home prices tend to stay on their current path, mortgage rates usually drop during economic slowdowns. Again, looking at data from the last six recessions, mortgage rates fell each time (see graph below):
So, a recession means mortgage rates could decline based on the data. While that would help with affordability, don’t expect the return of a 3% rate.
Bottom Line
While the possibility of a recession is still uncertain, the odds have certainly increased. That said, you don’t have to be left guessing when it comes to real estate—historical data gives us a clear picture of how the housing market typically responds.
At Shafran Realty Group, we’re here to guide you through any market shift with clarity and confidence. If you’ve been hearing recession headlines and wondering what it could mean for buying or selling a home, let’s talk. What questions or concerns are on your mind?